Vanke (000002): Sales can take land with intent

Vanke (000002): Sales can take land with intent

The main points of the report describe the company’s sales area of 320 in September.

70,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6%; realized sales of 492.

90,000 yuan, an increase of 13 in ten years.

5%; 1?
The cumulative sales area in September was 3061.

60,000 square meters, an increase of 5 in ten years.

5%; realized sales amount of 4756.

100 million, an increase of 10 in ten years.

2%.

  Event Commentary September sales volume increased by 13 each year.

5%, sales expectations are expected to continue.

The company achieved sales of 492 in September.

10%, an increase of 13.

5%; sales area 320.

70,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6%; the average selling price for the month was 15,370 yuan / square, which was 3 lower than the previous month’s 15,908 yuan / square.

39%.

The cumulative sales amount from January to September was about 4,756.

100 million, an increase of 10 in ten years.

2%; cumulative sales area is 3061.

60,000 square meters, an increase of 5 in ten years.

5%.

The ten-year growth rate of the company’s sales area in August and September was 7 respectively.

8%, 6.

0%, indicating that short-term sales have expected returns. In the key period of sprint performance in the fourth quarter, housing companies generally expanded their sales and seized cash back. It is expected that sales will help maintain strength.

  In September, the company’s land acquisition is expected to be acceptable, and the total land acquisition area will increase by 3 each year.

4%.

In September the company took the land to build 398.

50,000 都市夜网 square meters, an increase of 3 in ten years.

4%; 3047 will be gradually acquired from January to September.

90,000 square meters, down 20 a year.

2%.

In terms of land prices, the company received a total land price of 177 in September.

800 million, down 28 a year.

7%. The main reason is that land acquisition is concentrated in second- and third-tier cities, and the average floor price was once low. The total land acquisition price from January to September was about 1918.

200 million, a decline of about 12 a year.

1%.

In terms of land acquisition intensity, from January to September, the company’s land acquisition area / cumulative sales area ratio was 99.

6% (96 from January to August).
7%), the ratio of cumulative land acquisition amount / cumulative sales amount is 40.
3% (40 in January-August).

8%).

  On the whole, although the financing channels of housing companies have been tightened, the company’s land acquisition expectations are still acceptable under the increase in sales and tight collection.

  In September, land acquisition focused on second- and third-tier cities, and the average land acquisition price dropped significantly each year.

In September, the company took 398 land plots.

50,000 square meters, concentrated in second-tier and strong third-tier cities, of which second-tier cities are about 229.

20,000 square meters (57 percent).

5%), third-tier cities are about 169.

30,000 pings (accounting for 42.

5%), the company’s land acquisition is still dominated by metropolitan areas.

In terms of land acquisition costs, the average land acquisition price in September was 4,460.

6 yuan / level, a significant decrease of 31 previously.

1%, the main reason is that in the same period last year, one of the first-tier cities to acquire land caused the average land price to be high.

  Investment suggestion: Sales potential, the real estate sector is estimated to be repaired under market rotation.

As a leading real estate company, the company has positive sales, stable operation and a net debt ratio of 35.

04% is at an industry low.

Expanding diversified businesses on the basis of maintaining the basic housing development market, and gaining alpha benefits that surpassed those of its peers.

We forecast the company’s EPS for 2019-2021.

64, 4.

37, 5.

24 yuan, the growth rate is 22%, 20%, 20%, the corresponding PE is 7 respectively.

36x, 6.

13 times, 5 times.

12x, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk Warning: 1.

Uncertainty in the liquidity environment; 2.

Real estate business adjustment policy or uncertainty