Tonghua Dongbao (600867) Investment Value Analysis Report: Haikuo Leaps the Leading Diabetes Market with Trajectory

Tonghua Dongbao (600867) Investment Value Analysis Report: Haikuo Leaps the Leading Diabetes Market with “Trajectory”
The potential of diabetes is huge, and the diagnosis and treatment market has double the space.There are more than 100 million people with diabetes in China, and the diagnosis rate is only about 1/3. There is still room for double the increase in the future.At the same time, the average expenditure of diabetic patients in China is only 1/11 of the United States, even less than Brazil and Mexico, and there is huge room for growth. Insulin is the golden track for diabetes, and the grassroots market is the largest incremental space.We estimate that there are currently about 15 million insulin users, and it is expected to reach about 25 million in five years. The largest increase is in the primary market, such as secondary hospitals and community health service centers, which increased by 2.41 / 1.4 million respectively.Brand stickiness and price advantage are conducive to protecting Dongbao’s existing grassroots second-generation insulin market, while tiered diagnosis and treatment, and advancement of insulin medications bring incremental space for Dongbao. The company’s core competitiveness is “channel + capacity”.1) The amount of insulin depends on the clinical decision of the doctor. After more than 10 years of accumulation in the grass-roots market, the company has a strong grass-roots academic network to achieve efficient promotion. Since 2015, the per capita sales have been converted to nearly 40,000 per year; 2) Compressed large-scale productionDifficult, the company is one of the few companies in the world that can achieve ton-level production of insulin raw materials, and latecomers have high barriers to entry. The driving force of the company in the medium and long term is “the expansion of the whole product line of hypoglycemic drugs + the big platform for diabetes”.The company’s distribution of various drugs for diabetes, the progressive insulin glargine is about to be approved, and then the other three generations of insulin are progressing in an orderly manner at the same time. The transformed Adorsia fourth-generation insulin products will provide higher clinical value in the future.New points of differentiation.With the future development of the “Triad Disease Management + Glucose Monitoring + Drug Therapy” trinity diabetes platform gradually 深圳桑拿网 taking shape, the company’s diabetes manufacturer is upgraded to a total diabetes solution provider. Earnings forecast, estimation and rating: The company ‘s leading insulin market leader is consolidated, the second-generation insulin can still grow steadily, the third-generation is about to go on the market, and it will actively introduce heavy-weight insulin upgrade products. The pipeline for diabetes treatment will continue to enrich.In the long run, the company is expected to become a large-scale diabetes management platform company of “chronic disease management + blood glucose monitoring + medication”.Maintain forecast for 2019-2021 EPS is 0.48/0.57/0.69 yuan, a year increase of 15/19/22%, the current price corresponds to 19?The 21-year PE is 36/30/24 times, maintaining the “overweight” rating. Risk Warning: Insulin manufacturers increase the risk of increased competition; the risk of new product development and the application progress is not up to expectations; the risk of successful development of oral insulin competition for injections.