Fragrant flavour (603711): Juice tea sells well and is expected to rank among the top one billion

Fragrant flavour (603711): Juice tea sells well and is expected to rank among the top one billion
Incident: Xiangpiaopiao Tianjin Plant started production, and the company’s juice and tea blending volume increased month by month. The terminal strong showroom was widened, and juice tea was prepared for the peak sales season, and channel feedback was selling well.1. Since the Spring Festival, the company has started the battle of juice tea, focusing on “100 cities and ten thousand stores” to create a model market with remarkable results.At present, the company merges the new “three-year marketing plan”, cooperates with distributors to deepen channels, develops terminals, and proposes to double the number of existing controllable terminals within the year and approach the goal of 1 million by 2020. It is currently progressing in an orderly mannerin.2. In view of the main characteristics of summer beverage freezer sales, the company strengthened the frozen display cabinets at the terminal and seized the freezer to prepare for the coming sales season.3. The company raised the price of juice tea in early May. The ex-factory price was raised from 47 yuan / box to 49 yuan / box. The extra 2 yuan was returned to the channel through rebate. At the same time, it raised higher prices for dealer terminal development and display.Requirements, axial disguised excitation effect.Judging from the current channel feedback, the sales of fruit juice tea are good, and the inventory is relatively healthy. The maximum production capacity has been effectively improved, the volume has been increased month by month, and the sales volume in the first half of the year has exceeded expectations. Juice tea is expected to become a super-large single product.Due to capacity constraints, the company’s expansion from the beginning to the present month has been relatively tense, which has been translated into technical upgrading of the Huzhou plant and gradual climbing of the production capacity of the Jiangmen plant, which has effectively improved the production capacity.At present, the company has three production lines in Huzhou and two production lines in Jiangmen, with an average monthly output of about 800,000 boxes per line.The Tianjin plant will start production in the third quarter, and the monthly volume will reach more than 5 million boxes.The volume of juice tea in April, May and June is more than 3.5 million boxes, which is rising month by month, which is obviously higher than the previous Q1. According to the caliber of insertion, it is estimated that it will exceed 600 million (including tax) in the first half of the year.Super big list. The synergy effect of the channels reflects that the first half of the results is expected to reverse losses.In the second quarter, the sales volume of brewing products increased in the off-season, but the channel costs were relatively compact, so there will be obstacles in the second quarter of the past calendar year.The launch of fruit juice tea formed a good synergy effect at the channel end, effectively allocating channel costs and improving profit quality.Without considering fair incentive expenses, the second quarter is expected to achieve breakeven, and the performance in the first half of the year has improved significantly from last year. Profit forecast and rating.Considering that the sales volume of fruit juice tea in the first half of the year exceeded expectations and the momentum of sales was good, the company’s profit forecast was slightly raised. It is expected that the compound growth rate of revenue for 2019-2021 is 27.2%, the compound growth rate of net profit attributable to mother is 30.4%, EPS is 0.95, 1.25, 1.66 yuan, corresponding to PE of 39X, 29X, 22X, maintaining the “buy” level. Risk Warning: The price of raw materials may fluctuate greatly, and the sales of juice tea may be lower 杭州桑拿 than expected.