Long Eagle Credit (002664): 2019H1 Drone Business Prosperity Motor Parts Business Segment Industry

Long Eagle Credit (002664): 2019H1 Drone Business Prosperity Motor Parts Business Segment Industry
Event: On August 15, the company released its semi-annual report for 2019: Realizing revenue of 12.2 billion (down 8 years ago).58%), realizing net profit attributable to mother 1.3.3 billion (down 1 year).88%). Comments: 1) Looking at the company’s 2019H1 performance growth industry as a whole, the decline in raw material costs and operating management and other contributions to performance began to show: ① 2019H1 revenue12.2 billion (down 8 years ago).58%), mainly auto parts business (48% of revenue, and will decline 12.40%) Due to the breakdown of the overall automotive industry (According to the data of the China Automobile Association, the production and sales volume of some autos in H1 2019 decreased by 13.7% and 12.4%. Among them, passenger car production and sales fell by 15 in ten years.8% and 14%), but under the company ‘s overall revenue, the output of automobiles has declined, and the company has unique competitive advantages in product characteristics and technical services, forming a strategic customer advantage that is difficult to surpass. The main customers are global leadersMotor manufacturers, such as Valeo, Bosch, Denso, Continental, etc.Other businesses, such as elevator business, benefit from retrofitting elevators in old communities, which are expected to increase by 144% and are expected to continue high growth; drone business continues to grow12.32%, maintaining a better business climate. In addition, drone delivery is mostly concentrated in the second half of the year. ② The net profit attributable to mothers in 2019H1 has fallen by more than 1.88%, net profit after deducting non-attribution to mothers fell by 5 per year.29% are better than revenue growth, mainly due to the company’s overall gross profit margin of 25%.61%, 2 improvements per year.39 total, of which: auto parts business18.09%, 0 improvement every year.20 units; electric vehicle parts business 6.06%, 1 improvement per year.85 pilots; 89 for drone technical services.89%, 1 improvement per year.32 digits and so on.We believe that the improvement in the company’s gross profit margin is mainly due to the obvious decrease in the cost of raw materials. The price of non-oriented silicon steel, which accounts for a relatively large part of the company’s motor parts business cost, has fallen from 6,000 yuan / ton in June 2018 to 5400 yuan / ton, which is a decrease.The rate reached 10%, and the company clearly benefited. ③ From the balance sheet perspective, the company’s advance payment increased by 49 from the beginning of the period.30%, mainly because Tianyu Changying prepaid drone materials and motor business to pay for steel increased, which indicates that the company ‘s drone and motor business orders in the second half of the year are better, and the second half performance is expected to be better than the first half.The company has 72 million projects under construction, an increase of 89 from the beginning of the period.57%, the company continues to invest in the construction of smart factories. After reaching the production capacity in the future, it will greatly expand the existing efficiency and capacity space of the new energy vehicle business. 2) The company ‘s drone business further expands its internal market and overseas markets, while focusing on the rapid deployment of large-scale logistics drones: ① On August 2, Tianyu Longying and a customer added 7.8 billion order contracts, accounting for 29 of the company’s annual operating income.65%, the main model 005 series continues to consolidate the advantages of military customers, continues to extend the supply contract, and will continue to purchase in the future.In the future, with the trend of increasing the degree of unmannedness of our army, the demand is expected to continue to increase during the 14th Five-Year Plan. The company is the first domestic drone development unit with deep technology accumulation. Its products have been installed in the military for more than ten years.The first prize of scientific and technological progress, the core benefit of this progress.In addition, the company’s export-type drones have been approved for military exports in 2018 and are expected to achieve a breakthrough in military trade orders. ②In the civilian field, the company has deployed civilian logistics drones. The domestic cooperation with Alibaba Cainiao’s “Hump” plan, and at the same time is committed to promoting international business.The company has cooperated with Alibaba Cainiao on the “Hump” unmanned logistics plan, changing the internal unmanned logistics and airworthiness policies, and benefiting from the domestic unmanned logistics market.In addition, according to Bloomberg report in Jakarta, Garuda Indonesia plans to purchase 100 drones + 50 drones from the company for cargo transportation between the islands of the country. It is expected that 30 logistics centers will be established within 5 years 杭州夜网论坛 to operate logistics.Drone.In September this year, two drones will be delivered for test flights in eastern Indonesia. ③ At present, the Taizhou UAV production base has completed the assembly of multi-stage UAVs, with an annual production capacity of 40 aircrafts, which can meet the assembly of 8 aircrafts at the same time. It will be formally built in the future, and it can form an annual delivery of 50 large unmannedMachine capacity to meet current high-volume orders. Investment suggestion: The company ‘s military drones are currently the initial model of domestic drones, and there are full orders in hand. With the trend of drones in our army in the 14th and 5th years, the role of drones in the investigation field is prominent, and demand is expected.Significant growth; in the civilian sector, the company focuses on the development of the international civil logistics market and is expected to form a new point of performance growth; the motor parts business is stable and is currently basically at the bottom of the industry; upward, there is a recovery of the automotive industry and the deployment of new energy flat wire motors.The improvement of steel prices and other margins are good. In addition, the flat wire motor technology of new energy drive motors is leading in the country and can be focused on.We expect net profit for 2019-2021 to be 2 respectively.7, 3.4,4.7 trillion, corresponding to the current highest PE is 19, 16, 11 times, given a “buy-A” grade. Risk reminder: The development of the motor stator and rotor business exceeds expectations, the drone orders are less than expected, and the flat line business R & D falls short of expectations.