Foreign agencies temperature China’s economy: here is a hot place for development
Tang Cuiling still has pressure and challenges, and the Chinese economy has achieved a smooth start in the first quarter.
Looking to the future, foreign institutions in developed countries said in an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange that they remain optimistic about China’s economic development prospects.
The growth momentum continues with foreign expectations of optimistic and bright data in March, and the market expects that the April economic data released this week may improve.
Therefore, investors still expect that the Chinese economy will maintain a good momentum of development in the face of complex and changing internal and external environments.
”The factors such as exceeding the low base and resuming work earlier than previous years brought by the migration of the Spring Festival played an important role in the March data rebound.
It is expected that the overall economic data for April will fall slightly from the previous March. This is a normal trend of change and will not affect our judgment of the Chinese economy’s ‘lower and higher’.
“In an exclusive interview with the Shanghai Securities Journal, Xing Ziqiang, chief economist at Morgan Stanley China, said that with the continued development of counter-cyclical policies and the support of active fiscal policies, he maintained optimistic expectations for the Chinese economy.
Pioneer Pioneer Group’s Asia-Pacific chief economist Wang Qian also told Shanghai Securities News that there are certain factors for better March data.
At present, China needs to continue to maintain the current policy environment to ensure stable economic growth.
According to the continuous efforts of counter-cyclical policies to overcome the uncertainty of the internal and external environment, Xing Ziqiang predicts that the economic development in the third and fourth quarters of this year will be better than that in the first quarter, and the GDP growth rate is expected to be 6.
5% to 6.
Initially, he expects GDP growth to reach 6.
Other foreign institutions are also optimistic about the Chinese economy.
In the short-term, due to China’s outstanding 武汉夜生活网 economic performance in the first quarter, JP Morgan Chase raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2019 to 6.
4%, and believes that the Chinese economy will continue to maintain its current growth momentum in the next two quarters.
Accelerating financial opening up does not diminish the charm of the market. China’s long-term economic development cannot be separated from the high level of opening up.
Since last year, China has further accelerated the pace of financial opening up.
During the “May 1st” period, the CBRC released news that it plans to launch 12 new measures for opening up to the outside world to further improve the foreign investment and operating environment in the financial sector.
In early April, RMB-denominated Chinese government bonds and policy bank bonds were officially replaced by the Bloomberg Barclays Bond Index.
Syria, FTSE Russell and MSCI have both increased the weight of A shares in their emerging market indexes by factors of 25% and 20%, respectively.
”RMB bonds and A-shares ex-major indices are an important step in the integration of the Chinese market with the global financial markets.
“Liu Linan, a Deutsche Bank China fixed income strategy analyst, commented.
”The Chinese market is an indispensable and important component of the global investment portfolio.”
Increasing financial openness will help reduce the risk of overseas investors’ portfolios, increase long-term investment returns, and enable global investors to share the long-term development dividends of the Chinese economy.
Wang Qian said that in terms of China’s own development, expanding financial openness will help improve the efficiency of capital allocation, reduce financial risks, and build a stable and sustainable economic and financial system.
In Xing Ziqiang’s view, China’s financial opening is justified.
Growth, which provides foreign countries with opportunities for expansion and diversification; restructuring, which also shows that the expectations of RMB assets in global asset allocation are gradually rising.
He predicted that within the next 5 to 10 years, the proportion of RMB in global reserve asset allocation will reset to 1 now.
8% rose to about 5%.
Deep urbanization has the potential to transform the internal space of the service industry to deepen reforms and open wider to the outside world. The vitality of China’s economic development has been stimulated, and a smooth start has been achieved in the first quarter.
From a long-term perspective, how can foreign countries take the Chinese economy?
In terms of promising economic development areas, Xing Ziqiang said that in the future he is more optimistic about China’s deep urbanization, continuous opening up and the internationalization of RMB assets.
Specifically, Xing Ziqiang believes that China’s further opening up of the real economy will strengthen China’s attractiveness to the global industrial chain.
In the field of financial market opening, he believes that the internationalization of RMB assets is the general trend, and it is expected that the average annual inflow of securities investment in the Chinese market will reach more than 200 billion US dollars by 2030.
In addition, he is optimistic about China’s deep urbanization development space.
He said that high-speed rail, 5G network and household registration system reform can bring the industrial chain into play during the development of China’s urban agglomerations, and satellite cities around first-tier cities can enjoy the development dividend of interconnection. ”Through the Chinese economy’s gradual shift to consumption-driven, the service industry, especially consumer-related pensions, medical care, education, and tourism, has room for development.
“Wang Qian said that the continuous upgrading of manufacturing and technological innovation will be the long-term driving force of China’s economy.
J.P. Morgan ‘s Asia Pacific Vice Chairman Li Jing said that current and future changes, the “engine” driving China ‘s economic development will be artificial intelligence, 5G and medical and health industries.
In the long run, Wang Qian believes that China’s economic growth is facing structural challenges, but the continuous promotion of openness, supply-side structural reforms, and technological innovations will partially offset the impact, thereby achieving economic realization and long-term sustainable development.