Poly Real Estate (600048): High-growth target city layout among leading real estate companies returns to the first and second tiers

The 2019Q1 results were in line with expectations, and the 2018 results were slightly higher than expected.

The company achieved operating income of 225 in 2019Q1.

800 million (adjusted growth rate of 12.

1%), net profit attributable to mother 23.

200 million (adjusted growth rate 22).

5%); 2018 achieved operating income of 194.5 billion (adjusted growth rate of 32.

7%), net profit attributable to mother 189.

0 billion (adjusted growth rate of 20).

9%), the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers is lower than the growth rate of revenues, mainly due to the substantial increase in the proportion of profit and loss of minority shareholders by 7 percentage points.

The company’s gross profit margin in 2019Q1 was 39.

8% (same as 2018Q1), compared with 32 in 2018.

5% (+1.

4pct); the minority shareholders’ ratio 2019Q1 is 30.

6%, compared with 27 in 2018.

7%, taking into account the rapid decline in the proportion of the company’s land acquisition equity in the past two years, it is expected that the proportion of minority shareholders’ equity will continue to increase; in 2018, the company increased the ROE to 16.

6% (+0.

3pct), attributable net interest rate 9.

.

7% (-1.

0pct).

Sales scale maintained steady growth.

The company achieved sales of 1096 in 2019Q1.

6 billion (+ 26%), 700 sales area.

0 million cubic meters (+ 18%), the average selling price is 1.

570,000 yuan / square meter.

In 2018, the sales amount was 404.8 billion yuan (+ 31%), the sales area was 2766 GM (+ 23%), and the average sales price was 1.

460,000 yuan / square meter.

The company is expected to achieve sales of about 500 billion yuan in 2019, corresponding to a growth rate of 24%, and the target growth rate in the first echelon of housing enterprises is relatively high.

Gradually, the intensity of land holdings gradually declined, and the proportion of first- and second-tier cities increased.

The company’s land acquisition amount in 2019Q1 was 14.3 billion, and the equity ratio was 50% (73% and 61% in 2017-18), the floor price was 5364 yuan / square meter, and the total land acquisition amount / sales amount was 13%, 2017-18 The annual ratio is 89% and 48%.

The first and second tiers accounted for 78% of the land acquisition amount in 2019Q1, and the ratios were 82% and 74% in 2017-18.

The completion of construction has increased significantly, forming a strong support for sales and settlement.

The company started construction 重庆耍耍网 area of 997 GM (+ 51%) in 2019Q1, accounting for 22% of the target; completed area of 274 GM (+ 25%), accounting for 10% of the target area; area under construction was 91.81 million cubic meters (+ 39%).

The saleable capacity area of all projects of the company at the end of 2018 was 1.

700 million square meters, after deducting the cumulative contracted area of 8682 GM, the actual saleable area is about 8552 GM, which is 3 in 2018.

1 times.

The company’s actual construction area in 2018 was 4,396 Universal (+ 43%), and 2019 Universal is expected to start 4500 Universal; the completed area is 2217 Universal (+ 43%), which is 1 of the settlement area in the year.

5 times, and 27.5 million countries are expected to be completed in 2019.

Financing cost budget, net debt ratio decreased slightly.

In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s net interest rate decreased by 84%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the beginning of the year, and an decrease of 18 percentage points from the first quarter of 2018.

At the end of the first quarter, the company held a total of 288.3 billion yuan (+ 21%) in compensation debts, 128.9 billion yuan (+ 78%) in monetary funds, short-term debt and non-current liabilities due within one year totaling 40.5 billion yuan, with sufficient funds.

Maintain Overweight rating and lower earnings forecast.

Considering that the overall property market maintains stability in 2019 and the decline in the rate of elimination, we are optimistic about companies with relatively abundant funds and relatively high growth rates, so we give an overweight rating.

As the company’s 2018 performance was slightly lower than expected, it lowered its profit forecast for 2019-20 and added a profit forecast for 2021.

It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-21 will be 231.

5/274.

5/331.

8 trillion, corresponding to a growth rate of 22 per second.

2% / 18.

6% / 20.

9% (Originally, the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-20 was 248 respectively.

8/306.

400000000).